Safety Rightly, discussion about new vehicle technology revolves around safety. It’s the number-one sales pitch for the adoption of the technology from AV apologists. So let’s start there.
Drunk driving. Of the roughly 39,000 annual vehicle fatalities in the United States, more than 10,000 of those deaths are attributable to drunk driving. When you take away the steering wheel, the argument goes, drunk driving deaths, injuries, arrests, etc. just disappear.
When drunk driving disappears, so will all traffic infractions. Speeding? AVs strictly follow speed limits. Failure to yield? Unlike human drivers, AVs have360-degree awareness. Even parking infractions will go away. It will be interesting to see what sort of impact this will have on municipal, county and state police budgets. It would certainly free up budget for community policing and social service enhancements that are part of the current civic discourse.
Roughly 26,000 annual traffic deaths are attributable to human error. Unfortunately, AV developers have yet to eliminate robot error. There are 9.1 AV accidents per million miles driven, compared to only 4.1 accidents per million miles for regular vehicles. Although in fairness to AVs, the majority of their accidents involve being hit from the rear by other vehicles.
The high AV accident rate, and high public scrutiny has delayed AV deployment. But the algorithms are constantly learning, and sensor technology is constantly improving, bringing the promise of safe AV technology ever closer. But obviously, we’re not there yet.
Distracted driving would also go away. Currently, this scourge accounts for over 3,000 deaths per year. Imagine how many lives could be saved if smart phones drove for you.
A Rolling Smartphone A number of tech companies have deployed communications microsatellite constellations for world-wide 5G. By design, many of them have ties to AV technology development. Amazon has inked a contract to launch its Kuiper satellite constellation into orbit, while also investing in Rivian electric vehicle (EV) trucks and Zoox AV cars. Alphabet, which owns Waymo AV car maker, is providing cloud services for Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starlink constellation. His EV maker Tesla is developing AV technology. Other AV developers (GM, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai) will surely seek connectivity and cloud partnerships. But as the current Ransomware crisis demonstrates, connected computers are susceptible to hacking by malevolent actors – a major plot premise in
Crimson Lucre.
Untying former drivers from steering wheels in an AV will lead to a number of vehicle interior innovations. Some AVs will become mobile offices, complete with desk, laptop dock and unlimited WiFi. Travel time will truly become productive, including virtual meetings, all while riding.
The non-business riding experience will revolve around connection to social media and gaming. Image virtual chats and playing high-res video games on built-in wide screens, or with virtual reality goggles as you travel.
A Fly in the Soup. Much has been made in the news about the current semiconductor chip shortage. Current policy discussions regarding returning the chip supply chain to the United States center around economic security. But returning chip manufacturing to the US won’t necessarily solve the chip bottleneck. In 2019, China was responsible for 80% of rare earths imports into the US, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That same year, China still produced roughly 85 percent of the world's rare earth oxides (the first precursor of the refined minerals)and approximately 90 percent of rare earth metals, alloys, and permanent magnets. Through commercial acquisition, China controls all but one major rare earth element mine in the US today.
Rare earth elements are critical doping components of semiconductor chips and are extensively used in other high-tech components. As clean energy tech, EVs, smart commercial and military tech proliferate, the strain on the supply chain will grow worse, leading to conflict – a major premise for the race to mine rare earth elements on Mars in
Crimson Lucre.
Highways An interesting outcome of AV adoption will be high speed vehicle platoons on freeways, resulting in increased roadway capacity. A typical lane capacity for freeway lanes is 1200 to 1400 vehicles per hour, under ideal roadway conditions and safe driver spacing at 70 mph. Safe driver spacing is dependent on human reaction time. It takes a typical driver ¾ second to recognize a hazard, then another ¾ second to apply the brakes or turn the steering wheel. An AV can recognize and react nearly instantaneously, allowing cars to safely travel mere feet apart at freeway speeds.
Around town. Expect a decrease in personal car ownership. Today, expect to pay a $15,000 premium for a Mustang Mach-E over a comparable gas-powered model (I’m excluding EV operating cost-savings here). The cost of AV sensors and software could be double that. Assuming true level 5 AV was available today, a Mustang Mach-AV would likely run around $75,000.
AVs, especially high-end models, will be owned by the wealthy - a new status symbol. These individual owners will arrange to rent their vehicles to rideshare companies rather than pay for parking. Rideshares, rented from individuals, leased from car manufacturers or owned outright will ply city streets, offering convenient transportation on demand. Traditional bus routes and taxi service will disappear. AVs will feed long-line bus rapid transit on dedicated lanes and longer-line rail rapid transit for longer local and regional trips.
Traffic signals will disappear, replaced by cloud communication between individual vehicles and master traffic operations centers that regulate traffic city-wide. Pedestrian signals will remain, strictly for the benefit of corridor traffic operations. Pedestrians could safely choose to disregard “don’t walk” signals but will incur a hefty fine for diminishing traffic flow on the street network if they do.
Absent the internal combustion engine, the din of traffic noise will diminish near highways, but not disappear. Tire noise will become the dominant nuisance. City streets, dominated by engine noise today, will grow quiet.
Prevalence by 2035. According to Bloomberg, current market trends alone - disregarding possible government carbon reduction mandates - 2020EV cars are 4% of sales (10m units), EV buses 39% of sales (600k units), vans and trucks 1% of sales (1m units). By 2030 EV cars will account for 34% of sales, EV buses 63% of sales, EV light duty trucks 31% of sales, medium and heavy-duty EV trucks 12% of sales. By 2040 EV cars will represent 70% of sales, EV buses 83% of sales, EV light duty trucks 60% of sales, and medium and heavy-duty EV trucks 31%of sales.
Hydrocarbon fuel consumption will peak in the mid-2020s. Neighborhood gas stations as we know them will experience a rise in business failures by the late 2020s. By 2035 gas stations will be sited primarily near freeway interchanges or along busy arterial corridors. Grocery stores or other big-box business locations with large parking lots and long customer visit times will deploy more fast-charging stations (440 volts). By the early 2030’s a significant percentage of EVs will feature hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrogen recharge will be offered at the remaining gas stations and as stand-alone facilities.
EV adoption is well and good, but what about AV adoption? AV adoption will certainly lag EV adoption, primarily due to slow technology maturation and high cost as I noted above. The one-percenters will be early adopters, but rideshare companies - who will be highly motivated to slash their driver payrolls - will drive the market for AVs.
Trucking companies will incrementally adopt AV, for the freeway portion of long-hauls, and local deliveries where street networks meet certain limiting criteria. But commercial adoption will be swift once the robotic vs human safety disparity is addressed.
So, will Ann Waters have easy access to AV rideshares in 2035 as she does in
Crimson Lucre? Probably. Will she be able to afford a used AV on a rocket scientist’s salary? Sadly, that depends on whether she earns a comparable salary to her male counterparts. The optimist in me says she can, but a detailed analysis must wait for a future newsletter.
Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources, listed in the order of discussion.
2021 DrunkDriving Statistics, Bankrate.
https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/car/drunk-driving/25 IntriguingSelf-Driving Car Statistics You Should Know, Carsurance.
https://carsurance.net/blog/self-driving-car-statistics/DistractedDriving Statistics: Research and Facts in 2021, The Zebra.
https://www.thezebra.com/resources/research/distracted-driving-statistics/Space CompaniesAre Investing Big in 5G Technology, Space.com.
https://www.space.com/5g-in-space-internet-satellites.htmlBig Tech’sObsession is all About Taking Eyes Off the Road, Seattle Times.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/technology/big-techs-car-obsession-is-all-about-taking-eyes-off-the-road/China RareEarth Market Report 2019-2023: China's Rare Earth Exports to the United StatesAccounted for 78% of U.S. Rare Earth Imports, PR Newswire.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/china-rare-earth-market-report-2019-2023-chinas-rare-earth-exports-to-the-united-states-accounted-for-78-of-us-rare-earth-imports-300856574.htmlHighwayCapacity Manual, Appendix B
https://ccag.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/cmp_2005_Appendix_B.pdfElectrical VehicleOutlook 2021, Bloomberg NEF.
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/ 
