China plays a prominent role in my EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller Series. Both the fictional communist and imperial governments monopolize rare earth elements, using China’s economic position to its global advantage. EPSILON, with the support of the U.S. government, opens an entirely new market when it ships back processed oxides to Earth from its Mars Prospector mining operation. Which raises the question, does the real government harbor ambitions for controlling Mars like they do in my books, or are its intentions for the Red Planet less malign? Do their plans clash with those of NASA and SpaceX?
     In December 2022, Wu Yansheng, chairman of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), noted the Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) proposes a robotic sample return mission in the next 10 to 15 years, to deliver material to Earth as early as 2031. The Tianwen-3 mission involves a pair of launches in the 2028 launch window. If successful, it would be China’s first-ever return of Mars samples.
     The CNSA robotic lunar rover Yutu-2, of its Chang'e 4mission to the Moon, entered orbit in December of 2018 before making the first soft landing on the far side of the Moon in January of 2019. Yutu-2 is currently operational as the longest-lived lunar rover and the first to traverse the far side of the Moon.
     China landed its Zhurong rover on Mars in May 2021, joining NASA in exploring the red planet's surface. But CNSA has not provided recent updates, and orbital images show the vehicle remains stationary.
     The Chinese government has not touted any economic benefits attributable to its Mars missions, rather extoling technological advancements and prestige.
     NASA’s website states, “The goal of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program is to explore Mars and to provide a continuous flow of scientific information and discovery through a carefully selected series of robotic orbiters, landers and mobile laboratories interconnected by a high-bandwidth Mars/Earth communications network.
     The agency will use what we learn on the Moon to prepare for humanity's next giant leap—sending astronauts to Mars. Exploration of the Moon and Mars is intertwined. The Moon provides an opportunity to test new tools, instruments and equipment that could be used on Mars, including human habitats, life support systems, and technologies and practices that could help us build self-sustaining outposts away from Earth.”
     As of January 2023, NASA operates two rovers on Mars—Curiosity and Perseverance. In the late 2020s, a lander, rocket, and multiple helicopters, would be launched, part of NASA’s effort to retrieve and deliver the samples collected by Perseverance. These are expected to be brought to Earth in the early to mid-2030s. The space agency, after decades of criticism around its Red Planet ambitions, has gone silent regarding a firm timeline.
     Both China and the US are pursuing lunar missions first, to gain experience and potentially use the moon as a jump-off to Mars.
     SpaceX plans for early missions to Mars to involve small fleets of its Starship spacecraft, funded by public–private partnerships. By refueling Starship in orbit using tankers, it will be able to transport larger payloads and more astronauts to Mars. Once infrastructure is established and the launch cost is reduced further, colonization can begin.
     A year ago March, company owner Elon Musk tweeted that he sees 2029 as the earliest humans might first step on Mars, 60years since the first moon landing in 1969. The next likely launch window occurs in 2032. If his target date slips into the 2030s, it will be closer to the timeframe most experts expect NASA to send the first astronauts to Mars.
     Granted FAA approval, SpaceX aims to perform the first Starship orbital test flight today. The mission is planned to launch from SpaceX’s Starbase in coastal Texas. After separation, the prototype Super Heavy booster will splash down around 30 km (20 mi) from the shoreline. Starship will achieve orbital velocity, then descend into the Pacific near Hawaii. NASA has selected Starship for the Artemis 3 moon landing in the mid-2020s.
     The new cold war is affecting the U.S./China relationship vis-à-vis space. Geopolitical headwinds mean China and Russia have so far rebuffed the U.S.-led Artemis Accords, a cooperation framework for the civil exploration of the moon, Mars and other astronomical bodies. There were twenty-three signatories as of December 2022.
     While the accords are explicitly grounded in the U.N.'s Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which China and Russia have ratified, disagreement remains over the endorsement of resource extraction by national space agencies.
     The Chinese communist party is failure-averse when it comes to their space program. Administrators and engineers are cautious and conservative in their approach to planning and technological development to avoid public embarrassment to the government. Progress is slow but steady, building on previous successes.
     It is unclear if China will allow the U.S. to goad it into a genuine space race with advancing timelines. Barring such program acceleration and risk, expect China’s first manned Mars mission in the late 2030s or early 2040s.
     For several years NASA has moved toward a services model of procurement. Prior administrator, Jim Bridenstine was fond of saying that the agency wanted to be "one of many customers" for companies that were building products and services for spaceflight. NASA has leveraged its position as a government agency to pick the top vehicles and technology from commercial space enterprises, saving its limited budget for development of expensive infrastructure programs like the Artemis SLS booster.
     As the SLS program has reaffirmed, NASA’s use of traditional cost-plus contracting is slow and prone to budget overruns. Procuring a combination of cost-plus and services should allow it to send a manned mission to Mars by the mid-2030s.
     SpaceX may be in the best position to reach The Red Planet first. Doing so might even work to NASA’s advantage. Rather than invest in cost-plus contracts to develop the flight hardware, they might opt to let the company shoulder development costs, demonstrate its viability, then hire them to transport personnel and equipment for its preferred scientific missions.
     SpaceX differs philosophically from China and NASA, who heavily weight their missions in favor of science and research. Both also value Mars for strategic superiority (i.e., their ability to dictate the other’s behavior). Musk, on the other hand, sees Mars more in economic terms(i.e., colonization), a quest to extend the human economy toward the stars.
     If the current cold war between the U.S. and China is not resolved, it will shape what happens on The Red Planet. Neither country trusts the other. Actions and reactions will quickly lead to a militarization of space in general and Mars in particular.
     What if the CNSA reaches Mars first? The Spratley Islands and the South China Sea are instructive. Atolls became military bases, complete with airfields, antiaircraft facilities and missile batteries. What was once international waters became a tightly controlled economic zone. Recall that China has refused to sign the Artemis Accords. On both the moon and The Red Planet. Look for a proliferation of small robotic stations to extend control around any manned bases. Partner countries will participate only at a guaranteed Chinese profit or benefit. Expect a growing PLA military presence over time on Mars (decades).
     What happens if NASA reaches the Red Planet first? Mars could end up being administered much like a National Forest here at home, with special regions and zones of intrinsic scientific value set aside for research. Economic zones would be reserved for permanent settlements, resource extraction and processing. The agency would freely establish scientific collaborations. Bases, extraction and processing would be run by concessionaires set up for those purposes, not unlike company towns here on Earth. Because all this will develop simultaneous with Chinese colonization, expect a growing U.S. military presence over time (decades).
     If SpaceX reaches Mars first, the end result will be similar to a NASA-first scenario, except the economic facilities will arise first, followed by designation of scientific areas.
     I anticipate Mars to be divided up into zones of influence controlled by “the free world” and China’s authoritarian axis. However, open conflict won't occur for several decades, if ever. Given the vast expense and fragility of facilities on The Red Planet, my hope is that cooler heads will prevail. Humans, at least on Mars, will learn to coexist. Open conflict would only exist in fiction, where it belongs.

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     Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources, listed in the order of discussion.

China Plans to Send its First Crewed Mission to Mars in 2033 and Build a Base There. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/china-plans-to-send-its-first-crewed-mission-to-mars-in-2033.html
China Sets Out Clear and Independent Long-Term Vision for Space. Space News. https://spacenews.com/china-sets-out-clear-and-independent-long-term-vision-for-space/
Inside China’s Plans to Conquer Space. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/china-space-moon-plans-space-station-1774538#:~:text=Xi%20Jinping's%20Space%20Dream&text=This%20December%2C%20China%20intends%20to,Earth%20asteroids%20and%20icy%20comets.
Mars Exploration. NASA. https://mars.nasa.gov/science/goals/
Human Mission to Mars. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars#:~:text=The%20first%20crewed%20Mars%20Mission,is%20proposed%20for%20the%202030s.
Explore: Moon to Mars. NASA. https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview
SpaceX Mars Program. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_program#:~:text=SpaceX%20aims%20to%20perform%20the,mi)%20from%20the%20Texas%20shoreline.
Mars &Beyond. SpaceX. https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/mars/
Yutu-2.Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yutu-2
NASA finds China’s Mars Rover after Months of Inactivity. New York Times. https://www.google.com/search?q=chinese+mars+rover+update&sxsrf=APwXEdfnGKuTryuWRht6iaW1pQDCnCz1rA%3A1681338225184&ei=cS83ZKT0CriD0PEPs7ixsA0&oq=Chinese+Mars+rover&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQARgBMgwIABANEIAEEBQQhwIyDAgAEA0QgAQQFBCHAjIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIHCAAQDRCABDIECAAQHjIECAAQHjoKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzoGCAAQBxAeSgQIQRgAUKYHWKcMYKWtAWgBcAF4AIABVIgBnwKSAQE0mAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz-serp
Lockheed Martin Makes a Big Bet on Commercial Space and the Moon. Ars Technica. https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/lockheed-martin-makes-a-big-bet-on-commercial-space-and-the-moon/