In July 2021 I looked at the state of AVs—autonomous  vehicles. My EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller Series features self-driving cars. After over a year and a half I thought I’d see what progress the technology has made, if any, and see if my predictions for the near-future need any tweaking.
     Major automakers, plus tech giants Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple have invested over $75 billion in AV. Some have begun deployment in limited circumstances. Check out the (not exhaustive) list of firms that have deployed this tech on public streets and corporate campuses:
● Last summer my wife sent me a video of a driverless steering wheel in a moving car. She and her cousin were riding in a Waymo rideshare in Chandler, Arizona. They both sat in the back, the front seat entirely empty. The company will start offering rides in Los Angeles and has already been hauling beer between Dallas and Houston.
● Cruise, a GMC subsidiary, operates a robotaxi service in San Francisco and plans to expand it to Phoenix and Austin, Texas.
● Zoox tested its technology in Seattle in Toyota Highlanders. Last month, one of its purpose-built robotaxis made its first voyage in Foster City, California, the San Francisco suburb where the company is based. Starting this spring, employees will be able to hop on an autonomous taxi for a 1-mile ride connecting two buildings on the corporate campus.
● Autonomous trucking startup Kodiak Robotics recently completed a coast-to-coast commercial run linking Texas, California and Florida for 10 Roads Express, a USPS mail carrier. The company is beginning to transport furniture for Ikea.
● Embark currently retrofits Peterbuilt trucks with its self-driving tech and runs a fleet of about a dozen that are already generating revenue.
● TuSimple announced that Union Pacific Railroad will be the first rail customer to move freight on TuSimple's fully automated trucking route between the Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona metro areas.
● Einride and GE Appliances deployed the first cab-less, self-driving, electric truck on a US public road.
     We are beginning to see the industry sort itself into winners and losers. Argo AI, a promising developer of self-driving car technology that raised billions of dollars from Ford and Volkswagen, shut down last October.
AV Adoption Challenges
     Human error accounts for roughly 26,000 annual traffic deaths. The promise of autonomous vehicles is to drastically reduce this grim statistic. Unfortunately, the AV accident rate remains stubbornly at 9.1 accidents per million miles driven, compared to 4.1 accidents per million miles for regular vehicles. The majority of accidents involving self-driving cars are less severe and involve being hit from the rear by human-driven vehicles. This could point to a programming bias. It would be interesting to see how developers train their AI models in defensive driving—at least for this type of crash.
     The accidents might also be due to a general weakness of artificial intelligence. AV is, after all, AI on wheels. As I noted in the June 2022 issue of JOTH, artificial intelligence lacks common sense. We humans can negotiate a new or unique situation effortlessly to take the correct action. Give me a coffee cup without a handle, and I’ll know how to pick it up without spilling the contents. That outcome is far from guaranteed by an AI-controlled robot trained to pick up a cup by its handle.         Most developers are now working with synthetic data, artificially generating rare or infrequent events to add to perception training databases for their models.
     The high AV accident rate, and concomitant public scrutiny has slowed deployment. But the algorithms are constantly learning, and sensor technology is constantly improving, bringing the promise of safe autonomous vehicles ever closer. But obviously, we’re not there yet.
     Much has been made in the news about the current semiconductor chip shortage. The bipartisan CHIPS Act of 2022 return the supply chain to the United States largely to shore up national security. But returning chip manufacturing to the US won’t necessarily solve the bottleneck. In 2019, China was responsible for 80% of rare earths imports into the US, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
     As of Dec 14, 2022, China accounts for 63 percent of the world's rare earth mining, 85 percent of rare earth processing, and 92 percent of rare earth magnet production. Through commercial acquisition, China controls all but one major mine in the US today. As the US claws back its technology supply chain, it must find new sources to lessen China's stranglehold on US chip manufacturing.
     Rare earth elements are critical doping components of semiconductor chips and are extensively used in other high technology. As clean energy, EVs, smart commercial and military tech proliferate, the strain on the supply chain will grow worse, leading to conflict—the premise for the race to mine rare earth elements on Mars in my EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller Series.
     Untying drivers from a steering wheel in an AV will lead to vehicle interior innovations. Some self-driving vehicles will become mobile offices, complete with desk, laptop dock and unlimited WiFi. Travel time will truly become productive, even down to group video chats or meetings, all while riding.
     The non-business experience will revolve around connection to social media and gaming. Imagine virtual chats and playing high-res video games on built-in wide screens, or with virtual reality goggles as you ride.
     An outcome of AV adoption will be increased roadway capacity. Typical lane capacity for freeway lanes is 1200 to1400 vehicles per hour, under ideal conditions and safe driver spacing at 70mph. Safe driver spacing is dependent on human reaction time. It takes a driver ¾ second to recognize a hazard, then another ¾ second to apply the brakes or turn the steering wheel. An AV can recognize and react nearly instantaneously. Highspeed platoons of vehicles mere feet apart will become commonplace on freeways.
     However, expect an awkward transition for drivers. Safety and roadway capacity will remain stubbornly problematic as long as self-driving vehicles share the road with human drivers. Large urban centers will slowly begin carving out AV-exclusive zones, expanding them block-by-block until human-driven vehicles are banned within city limits. This will take twenty years or longer—enough time to retire “older” cars from active service.
     Personal car ownership will decline. Americans possess a deep relationship with their cars, “You’ll pry my steering wheel from my cold dead fingers.” But the economics of car ownership may erode that love affair. Today, expect to pay a $15,000 premium for a Mustang Mach-E over a comparable gas-powered model (I’m excluding EV operating cost-savings here). The price of AV sensors and software could be double that. Assuming true level 5 AV was available today, a Mustang Mach-AV would likely run around $75,000. It may boil down to a binary choice, especially for lower income families: home ownership or car ownership.
     Passenger AVs, particularly high-end models, will be owned by the wealthy - a new status symbol. These individual owners will arrange to rent their vehicles to rideshare companies rather than pay for parking while at work. Rideshares, rented from individuals, leased from manufacturers or owned outright will ply city streets, offering convenient transportation on demand. Autonomous vehicles will feed long-line bus rapid transit on dedicated lanes and rail rapid transit for longer local and regional trips.
     Traffic signals will disappear, replaced by cloud communication between vehicles and master traffic operations centers that regulate traffic city-wide. Pedestrian signals will remain, strictly for the benefit of corridor traffic operations. Pedestrians could safely choose to disregard “don’t walk” signals but will incur a hefty fine for diminishing traffic flow on the street network if they do.
Prevalence by 2035
     EV sales are booming. According to Bloomberg, global market trends are being driven upward by a combination of government incentives, improvements in battery technology, and more compelling vehicle models by more companies. In 2022 EV cars accounted for 9% of global sales, EV buses 44%, and vans and trucks 1%. Here in the US in 2022 the Tesla Model 3 EV became the largest selling sedan in California, outcompeting the internal combustion Toyota Camry.
     AV adoption will certainly lag EV adoption, primarily due to slow technology maturation and high cost as I noted above. The one-percenters will be early adopters but rideshare firms, who will be highly motivated to slash their driver payrolls, will drive the market for passenger AVs.
     Busses are ideal candidates for AV adoption, with their fixed routes and stops. Many demonstrations today run fixed routes within large corporate campuses. The trend will be to migrate to ever larger routes in less controlled environments typical of urban center bus routes.
     Trucking companies are already incrementally adopting AV, beginning with the freeway portion of long-hauls, then local deliveries where street networks meet certain limiting criteria. But commercial adoption will be swift once the robotic vs human safety disparity is addressed.
     The occupation of “driver”, whether commercial bus, rideshare, or freight truck is imperiled. Those in the industry should make an exit strategy. Like the elevator operator of a century ago, commercial logistics firms have a huge financial incentive to replace drivers. Not only will it be cheaper, AIs won’t require rest breaks mandated by federal regulators, driving three times the distance of a human driver in twenty-four hours. AV adoption in this sector will be swift and irreversible.
     So, will Ann Waters have easy access to autonomous rideshares in 2035 as she does in the EPSILON Sci-Fi Thriller Series? Probably. Will she be able to afford her own used AV on a rocket scientist’s salary? That depends on whether she earns a comparable salary to her male counterparts. The optimist in me still says she can.

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     Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources, listed in the order of discussion.
Autonomous Vehicles and Their Impact on the Economy. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2022/02/14/autonomous-vehicles-and-their-impact-on-the-economy/?sh=2a08489860de
The Auto Industry’s $75B Bet on Autonomy Is Not Paying Off. Auto News. https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/auto-industrys-75b-bet-autonomy-not-paying#:~:text=Autonomous%20vehicle%20companies%20and%20suppliers,services%20after%20all%20that%20investment.
Argo AI, Ford’sSelf-Driving Venture with Volkswagon is Shutting Down. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2022/10/26/argo-ai-fords-self-driving-venture-with-volkswagen-is-shutting-down/?sh=5db0b3377241
Top Self-Driving Trucks Startups. Tracxn. https://tracxn.com/d/trending-themes/Startups-in-Self-Driving-Trucks
Parallel Domain Says Autonomous Driving Won’t Scale Without Synthetic Data. Tech Crunch +.https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/16/parallel-domain-says-autonomous-driving-wont-scale-without-synthetic-data/#:~:text=Most%20self%2Ddriving%20vehicle%20companies,collected%20from%20the%20real%20world.
25 Intriguing Self-Driving Car Statistics You Should Know, Carsurance. https://carsurance.net/blog/self-driving-car-statistics/
Distracted Driving Statistics: Research and Facts in 2021, The Zebra. https://www.thezebra.com/resources/research/distracted-driving-statistics/
Big Tech’s Obsession is all About Taking Eyes Off the Road, Seattle Times. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/technology/big-techs-car-obsession-is-all-about-taking-eyes-off-the-road/
China Rare Earth Market Report 2019-2023: China's Rare Earth Exports to the United States Accounted for 78% of U.S. Rare Earth Imports, PR Newswire. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/china-rare-earth-market-report-2019-2023-chinas-rare-earth-exports-to-the-united-states-accounted-for-78-of-us-rare-earth-imports-300856574.html
Car Ownership Statistics in the US. Value Penguin. https://www.valuepenguin.com/auto-insurance/car-ownership-statistics#:~:text=The%20rate%20of%20car%20ownership,vehicles%20in%20the%20same%20period.
Highway Capacity Manual, Appendix B https://ccag.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/cmp_2005_Appendix_B.pdf
Electrical Vehicle Outlook 2022, Bloomberg NEF. https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/